Maybe Called His Bet

I played a $50 – 50 players no limit the other day. In the near mid part, from 50 we were down to 20. My stack was about $4500 then and I was actually seated on the button with AQd. Blinds by the way are $200-$400.

At some point, everyone folded except a middle position player with about $5000 stack size making it $1800 to go. Well, I’ve been playing very tight since the start of the s&g, while he was occupied with quite some hands on the flip side. To mention, he was leading earlier with about $10000 chips, but eventually his chips melted down to about $5000.

Confidently, I called the $1800. Then the flop came 9d 3h 6d. He placed a bet all in ($3200) with $4200 in the pot. As a result, I placed over him an overpair, not so much trips.

At that point, I don’t believe he had aces as the preflop raise appeared very high. I thought actually that he might just be bluffing preflop, or hitting a pair on the flop instead.

But what do you think, should I just have called his bet considering that I might share the lead with roughly $10000?

Thanks!

Hunter

Hunter,

Let’s look at this from an odds standpoint. You had to call 3,200 to win a pot 7,400. You bet call would represent 42% of the pot. Now let’s look at your outs. You have 9 outs to make a flush. If you assume that your opponent does not have aces, this adds 3 more outs to your hands. You have at least 12 outs. This gives you a 48% chance to make your hand at the river. If your opponent has a lower pair such as 10’s or jacks, then you have 3 queens as outs too. This would give you 15 out with at 60% chance to make your hand by the river.

You either had a 48% chance or a 60% chance to hit your hand and it would only cost a bet of 42% of the pot. You had pot odds in this case. You should have called.